David Williams
MLB on FOX picks up late Saturday afternoon when Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres invade the Coliseum to do battle with the AL West leading Oakland A’s. Bob Melvin’s squad enters this series extremely rested after having its matchup against the Seattle Mariners cancelled earlier in the week due to a COVID-19 scare. Both teams have seen their odds to win the 2020 World Series get shorter with every passing week due to each playing some fantastic baseball over the course of the abbreviated season. Chris Paddack and Sean Manaea have struggled thus far, but each looks to have turned the corner over their last few respective starts. Could a pitcher’s duel be in the cards in the middle game of this three-game set?
First pitch for the game between the San Diego Padres and Oakland A’s is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2020, at 4:10 p.m. ET from the RingCentral Coliseum. The matchup will be aired live on FOX.
Odds Analysis
The Friars odds of winning the World Series came in around 50-1 at the outset of the season. Sitting seven-games over .500 entering Tuesday night’s opener against the Angels, they now offer up a 16-1 return on investment meaning a $100 wager would only return $1700 overall with the original stake. Hopefully you bought some Padres shares early on with most of the value already gone. As for Oakland, it too has seen its odds of winning the Commissioner’s Trophy get shorter as well. The A’s initially hit the board at 32-1, but their odds of winning it all have plummeted all the way down to +750. San Diego sits a single game over .500 on the road ($70), while Oakland has taken care of business at home coming out on top 13 of 17 times for a $525 ROI.
Probable Pitchers
Chris Paddack: The righty was one of the more highly clamored for arms throughout fantasy baseball circles before the season picked back up. For all intents and purposes, he’s grossly failed to live up to expectations in going 3-3 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. While his 42:8 K/BB ratio has been rock solid, Paddack has been extremely hittable evidenced by the 43 allowed through 42.2 total innings of work. He’s alternated quality starts with duds in each of his last four starts and was dominant last time out limiting the Rockies to five hits and no ER through five innings. The long ball has also been an issue in serving up 10 through eight starts, but it’s possible he uses the cavernous dimensions of the Coliseum to his advantage in this spot.
Sean Manaea: The lefty was an automatic fade earlier in the season after struggling through his first five starts. But something clicked in his home start against Arizona back on August 20 when he was able to toss 5.1 innings of 1 ER ball while striking out four and not issuing a single free pass; Oakland won that game 5-1. The effort was followed up with another five innings of 1 ER ball allowed to the Rangers in Texas his last time out. Again, he didn’t issue a single walk. The D’backs and Rangers have struggled to hit the ball and take walks this season. So, it can be argued that this will be a major litmus test for Manaea with San Diego owners of the league’s top ranked scoring offense that also checks in at No. 8 at taking free passes.
MLB Pick
I’m not buying into Manaea’s last two turns in the rotation. He’s still not striking many batters out or going deep into games. He’s yet to pitch through the sixth inning in any of his six made starts, and still served up more hits than innings pitched in his two most recent wins. With Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer currently ripping the cover off the ball while at the same time churning out patient at-bats, I don’t foresee Manaea being long for this start. Oakland winning four of his last five trips to the starting bump will likely force oddsmakers to line this game close to a pick ‘em when in fact San Diego should be installed decided road chalk. Paddack should be the favored arm in this matchup; I’d back him up to -130.
MLB Odds: Padres 5, A’s 2
