David Williams
The 2020-2021 NFL Betting season is ready to kick off but just like everything else in our world, things are poised to look a little different when the players return to the field. Perhaps the biggest difference in the NFL world is going to be the lack of fans in the stands and how that will affect betting lines going forward.
So far, 19 NFL teams have announced that fans will not be permitted in stands for all or part of their 2020-2021 campaign. The Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills have said that they will not be welcoming fans for at least the first two weeks of the season with more teams slated to follow. The others will likely see a “reduced audience” for the time being at least.
Betting Lines Something to Have Extra Focus On?
Generally, home-field in the NFL automatically makes the hosts a 3-point favorite. While that has proven to be a bit overrated in recent stats breakdowns, the fact that home teams get three points right off the bat may be something to focus on this NFL season.
“The NFL standard three-point home-field advantage has been declining in recent years, and the 2020 season will see an even steeper decline should fans not be in stadiums,” Patrick Eichner, the director of communications at PointsBet said in a recent interview.
So far, the Week 1 of the NFL season hasn’t seen much of a change in the betting lines, since the announcement that fans will not be permitted in the stands for the full slate of games. But it is something sportsbooks and bettors will be taking a hard look at as the season rolls along.
Impact
It remains to be seen just how empty stadiums will affect the wagering on the NFL but MLB, the NBA and NHL haven’t suffered much and may in fact have been buoyed by a sports-starved world.
Experts say that the NFL alone will generate $8 billion for the legal sports betting industry in the US, so there is a lot on the line for the league, the books and the jurisdictions that rely on tax revenue generated from a sports betting platform.
Sportsbooks have to be looking at the NBA, and NHL where the “home team” hasn’t meant nearly as much as when real live crowds are involved. The reality is that there will be no rabid crowds influencing refs during the emotionally charged action and there will be no fans to hinder the away teams’ crucial third-down play call.
DK Sportsbook oddsmaker Johnny Avello is on record saying that he would cut a home field in half with no fans in the stands. “It probably makes a point or two difference,” said Jason Scott, the vice president of trading at Roar Digital, which runs BetMGM.
A Lot to Think About
There is certainly a lot to think about for sportsbooks and bettors with the upcoming NFL season. Fans of the sport and those companies that rely on NFL betting dollars will be on pins and needles just hoping that the season starts and gets a chance to finish the year.
In the meantime, the crazy 2020 season will likely offer some value on the sports betting front. The Saints, the Vikings and the Seahawks may not be the inflated home-favorites they would have been in front of their insatiable crowds. With home field advantage severely hindered this year, the best team should theoretically win every week, both straight up and against the spread.
Everything that will influence a game’s betting lines is heavily scrutinized by those involves in sports betting, Add the lack of fans in the stands to that list. It will be interesting to monitor how and if sportsbooks will adjust to 2020’s new normal and how and if bettors will benefit from a change in the lines or the outcome of the games of the 2020-2021 NFL season. Stay tuned.
