Mark Taylor
The Chicago Cubs have cooled off from their red-hot start to the shortened 2020 season, reaching the halfway point of the 60-game slate with an 18-12 record. No one else in the National League Central has rallied to catch them, though, so they still lead the St. Louis Cardinals by three games to lead the division. The Cincinnati Reds (13-17) are tied with Milwaukee, five games back of the Cubs, and they look to dent the Cubs’ lead during a four-game set at Great American Ballpark this weekend, which includes a Saturday doubleheader.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Preview
Game Details
When:
Friday, August 28, 2020, 7:10 pm ET
Saturday, August 29, 2020, 4:10 pm ET
Saturday, August 29, 2020, 7:10 pm ET
Sunday, August 30, 2020, 1:10 pm ET
Where: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati
TV: Marquee Sports Network (Chicago) / Fox Sports Ohio (Cincinnati)
Radio: WSCR 670 AM Chicago / WLW 700 AM Cincinnati
Probable pitchers (away/home):
Friday: Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 3.55 ERA) (CHI) vs Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.41 ERA) (CIN)
Saturday (Gm 1): Yu Darvish (5-1, 1.70 ERA) (CHI) vs Trevor Bauer (3-1, 1.65 ERA) (CIN)
Saturday (Gm 2): TBA vs TBA
Sunday: Alec Mills (3-2, 4.55 ERA) (CHI) vs Luis Castillo (0-4, 3.62 ERA) (CIN)
Kyle Hendricks started the 2020 season getting shelled by these same Reds, giving up six runs on seven hits over 4 ⅓ innings. He settled down a bit against the Royals and the Indians, throwing 13 innings of three-run, 14-hit ball in a pair of Cub wins. In his last two starts, he has pitched serviceably but has been betrayed by the offense in one game and the bullpen in another. In team losses to the Cardinals and the White Sox, he has permitted three runs on ten hits over 11 ⅔ combined innings. In those games he has permitted three home runs.
Can he find his better stuff against the Reds?
The Reds have not won any of Tyler Mahle’s four starts, and he has shown a disturbing lack of durability in his last two. In losses to the Royals and the Cardinals for his last two starts, he has lasted just 6 ⅓ combined innings, permitting six runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs. He has fanned 11 over that span but has walked five.
He will need better control against a Cubs lineup that has made wild pitchers pay.
Final Prediction:
Chicago 7, Cincinnati 5
Yu Darvish is looking like an ace for the first time in years. He got shelled in his season debut, but since then, he has not permitted more than one earned run per start, lasting at least six innings in each outing. His most impressive outing came on July 31 against Pittsburgh, when he threw six shutout innings, fanning 7 while scattering a walk and a pair of hits, but his strikeouts are climbing, as he has fanned 28 over his last three outings against Milwaukee, St. Louis and the White Sox, with 20 combined innings.
Trevor Bauer has also been mostly masterful on the mound, but his hiccup came in his most recent start against Milwaukee on August 24. He permitted four runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs, lasting 6 ⅓ innings. Those aren’t awful numbers, but in his four starts before that, he had permitted two earned runs on eight hits combined, over 26 ⅓ combined innings, striking out 34. I don’t see any reason why Bauer can’t get back on track, which means that Saturday’s matinee could be a real pitcher’s duel.
Final Prediction:
Cincinnati 3, Chicago 2
For the nightcap, I don’t see a starter announced for either team, so I’m going to wait to put money down or make a call. You could see the teams use openers and long relief, which usually means that the “over” can pay off, so long as the total remains in single digits.
Alec Mills had two dreadful starts in a row, getting shelled for 10 runs on 12 hits by Milwaukee and St. Louis over just 9 ⅔ innings combined. On August 24, though, he looked to have settled down in Detroit, throwing seven innings of three-run, seven hit ball, striking out seven and walking just one.
Luis Castillo has been betrayed by bad defense and poor hitting while pitching for the Reds this season. In his last five starts, the Reds have scored 10 runs, with six of them coming in an August 11 extra-inning win over Kansas City. In his last three starts, he has permitted 10 runs, but only four of them have been unearned, thanks to errors behind him. In his last start against the Brewers, he threw six innings, permitting three runs (one earned) on five hits, striking out nine. Can the Reds get the bats out this time to support him?
Final Score Prediction:
Chicago 6, Cincinnati 4
