Michael Smith
MLB on FOX picks up from Busch Stadium on Saturday afternoon when the Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals partake in the middle game of a scheduled three-game set. These teams last met back in 2018 in this same venue where the Redbirds went on to take two of three. The Tribe will have had a rare day off to prepare for this series after running up against the Minnesota Twins heading into Friday’s series opener, while this will be the Cardinals 19th played game in the last 16 days. Whether that plays a role over the course of this series remains to be seen, but online sportsbooks will have St. Louis favored to win this game with staff ace Jack Flaherty taking the starting bump for only the fourth time this season; the Cards have won all three of his outings since the abbreviated season began. Cleveland will counter with veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco who failed to log a win in his last three starts.
First pitch for the game between the Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2020, at 1:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown live on FOX.
Odds Analysis
After seeing its dominant 20-game win streak against Detroit go up in flames by dropping two of three to the Tigers at home over the weekend, the Indians bounced back nicely by taking two of three against the Minnesota Twins to pull to within a half-game of the AL Central lead along with the Chicago White Sox. In doing so, the Tribe moved to 19-12 overall for a modest $67 return on investment. The Cardinals most recently pulled a rabbit out of their collective hat and staged a ninth inning comeback win for the ages. Down 5-2 in the ninth, the Redbirds sat back and allowed KC’s bullpen to turn a losing ticket into a winner after Kolten Wong took a bases loaded walk to win the game. The triumph prevented MLB bettors from trimming $369 off their bankrolls after St. Louis lost 5-4 as -198 chalk the previous night. The win moved the team to 7-3 at home where they’ve put $76 in their wagering supporter’s pockets.
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco: The Indians have alternated wins and losses in each of Carrasco’s six made starts. It was a loss last time out at home where he surrendered seven hits (2 HR) and 4 ER while only striking out four through 3.1 innings of work. Since beginning the season with three straight quality starts against the Royals, Twins and Reds, the right-hander has labored over his last three outings against the Cubs, Pirates and most recently the Tigers. Combined, he only managed to throw 12 innings and allowed 16 hits (3 HR) and 10 ER to go along with a poor 16:9 K/BB ratio. He’s made one career start against St. Louis and got beat up back in 2015, but the Cardinals currently rank out below average against righties with a .243 average and .724 OPS.
Jack Flaherty: Unlike his opponent, St. Louis has thrived when he’s taken to the starting bump. Last time out, he earned the win against the Royals by tossing five innings of shutout baseball. The righty is unblemished through three starts with the first two opponents being the Pirates and Cubs. He’s allowed just eight hits (1 HR) and 3 ER over 13.2 total innings and racked up a solid 12:3 K/BB ratio in the process. He’s been brilliant through a pair of home starts in allowing just seven hits and 2 ER while fanning nine and walking none. The righty pitched to a 2.37 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and .168 BAA over 16 home starts last season and will now set his sights on a Cleveland offense that ranks No. 24 in the league against right-handers with a .224 average and .696 OPS.
Player Prop Targets
Flaherty is yet to have one of those games where he racks up strikeouts. This might be it! Cleveland ranks out as one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to going down on strikes against right-handers. In fact, there are only five other teams that’s logged more Ks against righties; them being the Twins, Braves, White Sox, Tigers and Athletics. Should you want to avoid laying the moderate home chalk with the Cardinals, I’d advise looking towards Flaherty’s strikeout total should you still feel the need to get some skin in the game. But do it quickly as sharp money is destined to filter in which will undoubtedly force linemakers to inflate the vig substantially.
MLB Pick
I’m just not feeling Carrasco this season. Whether he’s bogging down as he deals with battling the Leukemia he was diagnosed with last season or not, his stuff just hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s not going deep into games. He’s not racking up the strikeouts like he was earlier in the season, and he’s issuing way too many free passes of late. With that the case, I have no choice but to begrudgingly back the home based Cardinals even though I despise the franchise with every fiber of my soul. If the juice on the -1 line is substantially lower than the full game money line price, go that route instead. Flaherty’s been even tougher on opposing bats in day games, and I simply have no confidence in the Tribe being able to solve the riddle.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Indians 1
