Mark Taylor
The Atlanta Braves invade the City of Brotherly Love owners of a slim two-game lead atop the NL East standings. The Philadelphia Phillies currently sit four-games back after winning three straight heading into Friday’s supposed series opener. With teams deciding not to play these days, it’s still very much up in the air as to whether this game goes down on Sunday night or not. Should it go as planned, it will be the tenth meeting between these division rivals this season. The Braves just took two of three from the Phillies at home last week with the lone Philly triumph just so happening to occur on last week’s airing of Sunday Night Baseball. Atlanta holds a 4-3 series advantage in 2020 with the over cashing in four times lately.
First pitch for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves is scheduled for Sunday, August 30, 2020, at 7 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown live on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast.
Odds Analysis
There aren’t many teams in the National League that’s made money for MLB bettors to this point of the season. However, Atlanta is one of them with it clocking in $292 in the black to date. That said, a bulk of that profit has been incurred in the comforts of Truist Park where Brian Snitker’s squad has amassed a 12-4 record that’s equated to a $624 return on investment. It’s been a much different story on the road however with the team two-games under .500 and $332 in the red for their wagering supporters.
It hasn’t mattered where the Phillies play; they’ve lost money for those that backed them regardless of venue. Philadelphia’s 12-14 record has seen it cost baseball bettors $408 overall with $252 of the deficit coming at home. The team sits a game under .500 both at home (7-8) and on the road (5-6), but Joe Girardi’s troops should be amped up for this series with it the first back home since August 16. The Phillies have split their 18 overall games when favored this season, and have already lost two of the three times they were installed chalk against the Braves this year.
Probable Pitchers
Josh Tomlin: The righty hasn’t been able to eat many innings since being taken out of the bullpen and inserted into the starting rotation. The veteran has made a pair of starts, and failed to reach the fifth inning in either of them. His first outing saw him throw four innings of six hit and 3 ER ball against the Washington Nationals in a game Atlanta lost 8-5. He then had no answer for the Phillies who were looking to avoid being swept last Sunday night when he was touched up for 4 ER and three long balls in only three innings. Looks like another bullpen game for Atlanta!
Jake Arrieta: The veteran right-hander was on his way towards logging his second quality start of the season last time out in Washington before Mother Nature swooped in and delayed the game for an hour. He only surrendered a single earned run on a home run through five innings and averaged a season-best 10.8 pitches per inning. After walking four and allowing 4 ER to the Red Sox through 4.1 innings his prior turn, the effort was sorely needed. Arrieta’s experienced success against the Braves in the past in going 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA over 10 starts.
Key Stat
The Phillies bullpen ERA clocks in at a league-worst 7.52. To say it’s been an adventure whenever Philadelphia’s bullpen takes over would be quite the understatement. There seriously isn’t a single arm in the pen that MLB bettors are confident about succeeding whenever the unit is called upon. Even Brandon Workman has been unreliable in the ninth since coming over from Boston. Of his three appearances he’s only failed to give up a run once. Should Philadelphia own a comfortable lead late in the game, you should definitely entertain the thought of playing live a Braves comeback be it on the readjusted money line or run-line.
MLB Pick
I recommended backing the Phillies against Josh Tomlin last Sunday night and I’m doing it once again in this spot. Tomlin’s throwing nothing but cheese at the dish right now in allowing 12 hits (3 HR) and 6 ER through seven combined innings as a starter. Philadelphia got to him for all three long balls with Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm each taking him yard. Arrieta has a history of performing well against Atlanta and was dominant in a start earlier this season after throwing six innings of shutout baseball. Philly was in a position to win that series last week, but a poor start by Aaron Nola and the bullpen prevented that from happening. Look for them to step up at home and see it all the way through this time around.
MLB Odds: Phillies 6, Braves 4
